“Passenger rail is dead” gets thrown around like it’s a fact, but the ridership numbers keep refusing to cooperate. We zoom out to Amtrak’s systemwide performance first, including record highs of 32.8 million rides in FY24 and 34.5 million trips in FY25, then we go route-by-route to see what happens when new service meets real demand.

We break down five recent Amtrak projects and compare early ridership to the projections that justified each launch. The Ethan Allen Express extension to Burlington shows how a simple 68-mile extension on existing track can produce a meaningful jump and hold it over time. The Mardi Gras Service between Mobile and New Orleans looks like a genuine breakout, blowing past its annual estimate in about six months while delivering strong customer satisfaction and enough demand that trains can sell out. Not every pilot shines though: the Berkshire Flyer’s seasonal tourism model struggles with low and declining ridership, while the Valley Flyer appears to be a quieter success as it recovers from the COVID shock and inches toward its original target.

Our biggest “wow” moment is the Borealis from Chicago to St. Paul, which beats its long-range forecast quickly and helps drive massive growth in the broader corridor. That success also points to the next problem: if demand is there, can we actually add frequency when there’s a multi-year backlog for trainsets? We close by kicking around a practical bridge solution while rail capacity catches up: better regional bus connections and how Amtrak already plays a bigger role in bus service than many people realize.

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