O início de ano foi marcado por tempo chuvoso e as projeções sinalizam recorde na produção de soja em Mato Grosso na temporada 2025-26. Nathalia Giannetti, colaboradora dos relatórios Argus AgriMarkets e Argus Brasil Grãos e Fertilizantes, participou de uma visita a lavouras do estado organizada por tradings, corretoras e produtoras de grãos. Ela falou dessa experiência e das condições da safra nessa conversa com a editora Renata Cardarelli.

Alguns dos tópicos discutidos:

• Resultados das amostras coletadas nas plantações

• Impacto das chuvas em cronograma e qualidade das plantas

• Planos para safra de milho

• Projeções para outros estados

The beginning of the year was marked by rainy weather, and projections indicate record soybean production in Mato Grosso for the 2025–26 season. Nathalia Giannetti, contributor to the Argus AgriMarkets and Argus Brazil Grains and Fertilizers reports, took part in a visit to farms in the state organized by trading companies, brokers, and grain producers. She spoke about this experience and the crop conditions in a conversation with editor Renata Cardarelli.

Some of the topics discussed:

• Results of collected samples

• Impact of rainfall on schedule and plant quality

• Plans for the corn crop

• Projections for other states

The US–Iran war has rattled crude markets, leaving almost a fifth of global supply effectively trapped inside the Mideast Gulf. Europe felt the impact later than Asia‑Pacific, but three weeks into the conflict, refiners across Europe are feeling the pinch.

Argus deputy crude editor, Lina Bulyk, and Mediterranean crude reporter Ellanee Kruck discuss how the war is reshaping European crude flows so far, and possible challenges in the weeks ahead.

Topics covered:

• How wide a supply gap the conflict could open in northwest Europe and the Mediterranean

• The alternative feedstock options refiners may turn to

• The broader implications for European market structure and regional refining margins

Join LPG editor Peter Wilton as he quizzes Argus Consulting's Jack Greenwood on what we could see next for LPG prices and fundamentals.

• How has the war and the closure of the strait of Hormuz affected fundamentals so far?
• Base case scenarios of the strait of Hormuz being closed for 2 months vs. it opening again this week
• Why stock draw down is not a long term option
• The importance of differentiating between propane and butane to understand supply challenges

These key insights come from Argus LPG Outlook, a service providing critical global analysis and forecasts for prices and market fundamentals.

Turkish imports of Russian hot rolled coil and slab rose sharply through 2025 as suppliers shifted material away from Europe. Elif Eyuboglu, senior reporter at Argus Media, spoke to Tolga Yigit Cekicler, direct procurement manager at Tatmetal, about how these changes, along with upcoming EU quota reductions, expected UK controls on Turkish HDG and new Turkish antidumping margins, could influence Turkeys flat steel market in 2026.

Key topics covered in the podcast

• Growth in Russian HRC and slab shipments into Turkey and whether mills may look for alternative sourcing as EU origin checks increase

• Impact of the EU’s plan to introduce post-safeguard regime in 2026

• Expected UK decision to place Turkish HDG under quota control and the possible shift in Turkish shipment strategies

• Turkey’s new antidumping margins on CR HDG and PPGI from South Korea and China and which further measures could have the strongest effect

• Potential changes in trade flows if access through the Strait of Hormuz is restricted and whether Chinese volumes could be redirected to Turkey

• Exposure of Turkish mills to another increase in electricity and natural gas prices if regional tensions tighten energy markets

Recent geopolitical disruption centred in the Middle East is redirecting product movements creating new pressures in the near‑term ethylene outlook.

Argus petrochemical consultants Alan Williamson in London and Toon Shien Lee in Singapore provide their initial assessment on how the conflict is impacting the ethylene market balances, particularly on feedstocks and product trade flows, ahead of the Argus Chemicals Forum on 26 March in Houston and AFPM on 29 - 31 March in San Antonio, Texas.

Listen to the latest episode to hear:

• What is the immediate and likely short‑term impact on the forecast for ethylene balances and regional outlooks across Europe, Asia and the US
• The key dynamics shaping the coming months, including feedstock and product availability, pricing dynamics and underlying demand signals
• How varying regional exposure and adaptability may influence near‑term market conditions

Argus Dry Freight has launched its latest podcast with Richard Stephenson, a Portfolio Manager and Trader at Pendle Commodity Investment Management Limited, a London based hedge fund specializing in commodity derivatives, with a particular strength in freight derivatives.

This episode of Argus Way to Freight explores why Capesize freight rates surged in early 2026 and how Guinea’s bauxite-driven supply dynamics continue to dominate the Atlantic market. Portfolio manager Richard Stephenson breaks down the impact of Guinea’s political volatility, bunker price spikes linked to the Middle East crisis, and the fragile economics of FOB bauxite supply. The discussion also examines the first cargoes from the Simandou project and what rising Atlantic iron ore flows mean for tonne‑miles and the forward freight curve.

Main topics:

• Why Q1 2026 Capesize rates spiked:unexpected restart of SD Mining’s licence, large bauxite volumes from Guinea, and short-covering in a weak market.
• Netback pressure on Guinea’s exporters:bunker-driven freight inflation pushing delivered costs above $30/t and squeezing FOB margins to breakeven levels.
• Political and regulatory risks in Guinea:licence revocations, potential supply caps, and how markets misprice the probability of disruptions across the freight curve.
• Simandou’s early shipments:slow initial loadings, expected ramp-up, limited near-term freight impact due to internalised logistics, but rising long-haul iron ore flows supporting tonne‑miles.
• Market outlook for 2026:near-term downside risks from Guinea disruptions and elevated bunkers, with possible Q3-Q4 support from Vale volumes and probable normalisation in the Middle East.

Listen to our experts (Toong Shien Lee - Deputy Editor, Erol Musov - Analyst and Jide Tijani - Reporter) analyse how the sudden escalation in US–Iran tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have upended the global naphtha market.

With tanker movements collapsing, export hubs damaged and loadings slowing sharply, Asia has absorbed the brunt of the shock, as nearly two‑thirds of its naphtha imports transit the strait. Meanwhile, Europe and the US Gulf Coast remain comparatively stable thanks to more diverse supply chains and stronger domestic production.

The podcast also explores how petrochemical producers across Asia are responding and how the tightness may cascade through ethylene, propylene and polymer markets. Medium‑term fundamentals are discussed: weak petrochemical margins, the impact of new cracking capacity in China and South Korea, and the growing role of gasoline blending in managing naphtha balances.

Find out what these shifts mean for naphtha balances in the months ahead, how long Asia’s supply shock could last, and the key market signals to watch as the industry navigates one of its most volatile periods in years.