Episodes

  • We’re Nearing Stage 3 — And It May Be Irreversible | Robert Pape

    We’re Nearing Stage 3 — And It May Be Irreversible | Robert Pape
    Mar 30 2026
    This is Part 2 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) breaking down the escalation dynamics of the current conflict with Iran. Follow him at his substack: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ Over the past week, the situation has evolved rapidly: Additional U.S. forces are deploying to the region Energy infrastructure across the Gulf is under attack Proxy actors, including the Houthis, are expanding the conflict In this conversation, we focus on one question: 👉 Where are we now? According to Pape, the answer is clear: We are now in the “escalation trap” — and nearing Stage 3. That next phase could mark a critical turning point, potentially triggering: Ground operations A prolonged war of attrition A shift toward what Pape calls “Stage 4” — where risks begin to extend toward the U.S. homeland Why the conflict is expanding, not stabilizing What “Stage 3” actually means in practical terms Why current “peace talks” are likely not real negotiations How Iran’s position has strengthened economically during the conflict The relationship between foreign troop presence and terrorism risk What to watch over the next 10–15 days Military success does not always translate into strategic advantage. In fact, as Pape explains, it can create the very dynamics that deepen and prolong conflict. If you’re interested in practitioner-level insights on national security and geopolitics: Follow the show Share this episode Send it to someone tracking this conflict
    Show more Show less
    26 mins
  • The Drone Threat Is Already Here

    The Drone Threat Is Already Here
    Mar 25 2026
    Episode Title:The Drone Threat Is Already Here Episode Description: Drones are no longer just a battlefield problem. From Ukraine to the Middle East, unmanned systems are reshaping how wars are fought—cheap, scalable, and increasingly accessible to both states and non-state actors. But the most important shift may not be happening overseas. It’s happening at home. In this episode, Scott sits down with Paul Lushenko, Chief Strategist at Joint Interagency Task Force 401, the U.S. military’s newest effort to coordinate a whole-of-government approach to countering drones. Drawing on both operational experience and research, Lushenko breaks down how drone warfare is evolving, what we’re learning from Ukraine and the current conflict with Iran, and why defending the U.S. homeland against drones is far more complex than most people realize. Are drones a revolution in warfare—or just the next evolution? What the war in Ukraine is actually teaching us (and what we’re getting wrong) How drones are being used in high-end state conflict with Iran The growing threat of drones to U.S. bases, infrastructure, and public spaces Why the biggest challenge isn’t technology—it’s coordination The cost problem: $1M missiles vs. $10K drones How tactics spread globally through a “contagion effect” The role of Joint Interagency Task Force 401 in countering drone threats Why mindset, training, and policy matter as much as hardware “This isn’t just a capability reserved for distant battlefields. It’s on our shores. It’s on the southern border. It’s at stadiums.” Paul Lushenko is the Chief Strategist for Joint Interagency Task Force 401, where he helps synchronize U.S. military and interagency efforts to counter drone threats at home and abroad. He is a career Army officer with nearly two decades of experience supporting special operations and has conducted extensive research on drone warfare, military innovation, and the integration of AI into modern conflict. Drone warfare is no longer confined to distant battlefields. As the technology spreads and becomes more accessible, the United States faces a new kind of challenge—one that requires not just better technology, but better integration across the military, government, and society. This conversation explores what that future looks like—and how prepared we really are. Follow At the Water’s Edge for conversations on national security, geopolitics, and the future of warfare from a practitioner’s perspective. 🔑 Key Topics Covered🎯 Key Insight🎙️ About the Guest📌 Why This Episode Matters🔗 Listen / Follow
    Show more Show less
    52 mins
  • The Escalation Trap

    The Escalation Trap
    Mar 21 2026
    The Escalation Trap: Robert Pape on Iran, Airpower, and Strategic Failure Robert Pape's Substack HERE Description: What if the biggest risk in war isn’t failure—but success? In this episode, I’m joined by Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago and one of the leading scholars on coercion, airpower, and political violence. As the conflict with Iran escalates, Professor Pape explains why what we’re seeing isn’t just a series of military exchanges—but a predictable pattern he calls the “escalation trap.” A dynamic where each step forward reduces control, increases pressure to escalate, and makes it harder to achieve political objectives. We break down: Why airpower alone has never achieved regime change How escalation actually progresses in stages Where the real center of gravity lies in the current conflict Why Iran may have more leverage than it appears What policymakers and the media are getting wrong What a realistic endgame could look like This is a practitioner-focused conversation on how wars actually work—and where this one may be headed. Note: This conversation was recorded in real time as events were unfolding. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 02:00 The Escalation Trap explained 08:30 Why airpower fails strategically 17:30 Escalation stages and shifting advantage 26:30 Economic warfare and oil leverage 35:00 Who has the advantage right now 39:00 What policymakers are getting wrong 42:00 What happens next
    Show more Show less
    47 mins
  • Coups, Wagner, and Jihadists: The Battle for the Sahel

    Coups, Wagner, and Jihadists: The Battle for the Sahel
    Mar 18 2026
    The Sahel region of West Africa has become one of the most unstable security environments in the world. A wave of military coups, expanding jihadist insurgencies, and the growing influence of Russia and the Wagner Group are reshaping the geopolitical landscape across Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and the surrounding region. But what is actually driving the crisis? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly sits down with Fidel Amakye Owusu, a security analyst specializing in West African and Sahelian security dynamics, to unpack the forces behind the region’s instability. They discuss the origins of jihadist movements in the Sahel, the collapse of state authority across parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, and how insurgent groups are increasingly performing functions traditionally associated with governments — including taxation, control of trade routes, and local security. The conversation also examines the role of French counterterrorism operations, the political consequences of recent military coups, and how Russia and the Wagner Group have expanded their presence as Western forces have withdrawn. Finally, they explore one of the most important questions facing the region: can the democratic states surrounding the Sahel contain the instability, or will the crisis spread further into coastal West Africa? This episode provides a practitioner’s perspective on the evolving security crisis in the Sahel, one of the most important and least understood geopolitical challenges in the world today. Fidel Amakye Owusu is a Ghanaian security analyst focused on terrorism, insurgency, and governance challenges across West Africa and the Sahel. His work examines extremist movements, regional security cooperation, and the political dynamics shaping stability in the region. The rise of jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel Why governance gaps fuel instability in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger How insurgent groups fund themselves through taxation, trade routes, and resource control The impact of French counterterrorism operations in West Africa The recent wave of coups across the Sahel Russia and Wagner’s expanding role in regional security Whether democratic states like Ghana and Senegal can contain the crisis
    Show more Show less
    57 mins
  • The Transparent Battlefield: Lessons From the War in Ukraine | Samuel Bendett

    The Transparent Battlefield: Lessons From the War in Ukraine | Samuel Bendett
    Mar 10 2026
    What is the war in Ukraine teaching the world about modern warfare? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly speaks with Samuel Bendett of the Center for Naval Analyses, one of the leading analysts tracking Russian military adaptation and the role of drones and emerging technology on the battlefield. They discuss how Western analysts misunderstood Russian capabilities before the 2022 invasion, how the massive proliferation of small drones has made the battlefield increasingly transparent, and why both Russia and Ukraine have turned to commercial technology and civil society to sustain combat operations. The conversation also explores the early role of artificial intelligence in the war, how soldiers on both sides are modifying technology at the tactical edge, and what lessons the United States military should be learning from the conflict. As China, Iran, and other major powers study the war closely, Ukraine has become a real-time laboratory for the future of warfare—and a warning about how quickly modern conflicts can evolve beyond anyone’s expectations. • The battlefield is becoming transparent. The widespread use of small drones means that forces operating near the front line are increasingly visible, forcing militaries to rethink mobility, concealment, and survivability. • Commercial technology is now part of warfare. Both Russia and Ukraine have relied heavily on off-the-shelf drones, radios, and other commercial components, often sourced through civil society networks. • Civil society has become a wartime logistics system. Volunteer groups and online fundraising campaigns have helped supply frontline units with critical equipment—from drones to communications gear. • AI is beginning to appear on the battlefield. Artificial intelligence is being used to process massive quantities of battlefield data and assist with target identification, though fully autonomous systems remain limited. • The world’s militaries are watching closely. China, Iran, North Korea, and others are studying the war in Ukraine to understand how drones, electronic warfare, and battlefield adaptation are reshaping modern conflict.
    Show more Show less
    42 mins
  • Can Veterans Fix Congress? | with Richard Ojeda

    Can Veterans Fix Congress? | with Richard Ojeda
    Mar 5 2026
    Retired Major Richard Ojeda joins At the Water’s Edge to discuss his campaign for North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District, why he believes veterans should play a larger role in American politics, and what he sees as the biggest failures of Washington today. Ojeda spent 24 years in the U.S. Army, much of that time at Fort Bragg, before returning to his hometown in southern West Virginia, where he served as a state senator and became known for his outspoken populist style of politics. In this conversation, we explore how military service shapes his political worldview, the challenges veterans face when transitioning to civilian life, and the role Congress should play in overseeing the executive branch during times of geopolitical tension. The discussion covers everything from VA bureaucracy and rural economic decline to war powers, foreign policy, and populism in both political parties. While the conversation touches on highly political issues, the goal of this episode is not endorsement but understanding—examining how a combat veteran running for Congress views the current strategic and political moment in the United States. Transitioning from military service to civilian life The VA disability system and challenges veterans face navigating it Why Ojeda believes veterans should run for public office Campaigning as a populist Democrat in a Republican-leaning district The role of grassroots campaigning vs. corporate PAC funding Congressional oversight of the executive branch War powers and constitutional limits on presidential authority How foreign policy decisions affect military communities Trade policy, manufacturing, and the economic challenges facing rural America Working across the aisle in Congress Richard Neece Ojeda II is a retired U.S. Army major and former West Virginia state senator. During his military career he served in multiple deployments during the Global War on Terror. After leaving the Army, he entered politics and became known for his outspoken advocacy on behalf of working-class communities and veterans. He is currently running for Congress in North Carolina’s 9th District. Scott Kelly is a former U.S. Army Special Forces officer and the host of At the Water’s Edge, a podcast examining national security, geopolitics, and the strategic challenges shaping the world today from a practitioner’s perspective. If you enjoy the show, please consider: Following the podcast Leaving a rating or review Sharing the episode with someone interested in national security or public service The views expressed by guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of the host or the podcast
    Show more Show less
    55 mins
  • War Is the Easy Part. What Happens After Iran’s Regime?

    War Is the Easy Part. What Happens After Iran’s Regime?
    Mar 4 2026
    The United States and Israel are now at war with Iran. Airstrikes, missile exchanges, and regional escalation have reshaped the strategic landscape in a matter of days. But the larger question remains: What happens next inside Iran? In this follow-up conversation, Scott Kelly is joined again by Zolal Habibi, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), to examine how one major opposition movement views this moment—and what they believe comes after. This episode explores the practical, political, and strategic dimensions of regime change in real time. Whether war strengthens or weakens the Iranian regime internally The NCRI’s announcement of a provisional government Claims of resistance activity inside Iran The formation of a potential “Liberation Army” Opposition unity and tensions with the monarchist camp Kurdish autonomy vs. territorial integrity The risk of state collapse and “Libya scenarios” Whether foreign coordination is necessary—or dangerous What a post-regime transition would actually require Does war produce a rally-around-the-flag effect inside Iran? What would signal real regime fracture versus narrative momentum? Can armed opposition movements coordinate without fragmenting? What safeguards would prevent a cycle of revenge or state failure? What confidence can be offered that Iran would not become the next failed state? There are multiple competing Iranian opposition groups with different visions for Iran’s political future. Zolal Habibi represents one of those organizations. Invitations have been extended to other factions—including representatives from the monarchist camp—to present their perspectives in future episodes. The claims expressed in this conversation are those of the guest and her organization and may not be independently verifiable in real time. Regime change is often discussed as a headline. Much less often is it examined as a messy, structural process involving institutions, armed actors, coalition dynamics, and governance capacity. This episode focuses on those mechanics—not just the rhetoric.
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 5 mins
  • Air Dominance Was Our Advantage. It May Also Be Our Blind Spot with Ethan Brown

    Air Dominance Was Our Advantage. It May Also Be Our Blind Spot with Ethan Brown
    Feb 24 2026
    Ethan Brown returns to At the Water’s Edge to discuss the second volume of his JTAC trilogy, Visual Friendlies: Tally Target, which examines the evolution of close air support during the surge years in Iraq (2006–2008) and Afghanistan (2011–2013). We explore how 20 years of uncontested air dominance reshaped American warfighting culture — from precision targeting in dense urban battle spaces to the rise of persistent ISR and smartphone-level situational awareness tools at the platoon level. Key topics include: How close air support evolved during the surge years The relationship between ground commanders, JTACs, and pilots Risk mitigation culture in the post-9/11 wars Whether technological dominance created institutional dependency NATO’s role at the tactical edge of the fight Jointness as one of GWOT’s enduring legacies The political-military divide and the importance of clearly defined end states We also discuss what must be unlearned from GWOT as the U.S. military prepares for potential large-scale conflict in contested environments — where air superiority and persistent coverage may not be guaranteed. This episode is a candid reflection on tactical excellence, institutional adaptation, and strategic ambiguity. Ethan Brown is a former U.S. Air Force Tactical Air Control Party (TACP) specialist who served 11 years, including time embedded with the 75th Ranger Regiment as part of Air Force Special Tactics. He is the author of the JTAC trilogy, a detailed examination of close air support and air power integration during the post-9/11 wars. Visual Friendlies: Tally Target Available via Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and Casemate Publishers. Subscribe to At the Water’s Edge for weekly long-form conversations on national security, civil-military relations, and emerging strategic challenges.
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 4 mins