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Australia in the World

Australia in the World

By: Darren Lim
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A discussion of the most important news and issues in international affairs through a uniquely Australian lens. Hosted by Darren Lim, in memory of Allan Gyngell.Copyright 2019 All rights reserved. Political Science Politics & Government
Episodes
  • Ep. 181: An even more dangerous phase looms in Iran

    Ep. 181: An even more dangerous phase looms in Iran
    Mar 30 2026

    Now in its fifth week, the Iran war may be about to enter its most dangerous phase. In a shorter update this episode, Darren assesses what he sees as four important dynamics as President Trump’s new extended 6 April deadline approaches: (1) the collapse of negotiations and the simultaneous buildup of U.S. ground forces in the region; (2) why seizing Kharg Island or Iran’s enriched uranium may be tactically feasible but strategically self-defeating; (3) the widening of the conflict as the Houthis enter the war and the economic damage compounds beyond recovery; and (4) why the regime change that is actually occurring in Tehran — toward a more radical, IRGC-dominated system — cuts directly against the logic of further escalation.

    If you've been following this series, this is the episode where the threads of the past month converge on a single question: does Washington recognise the strategic trap it is walking into, or does it fall in?

    Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

    Relevant links

    Dan Lamothe, "Pentagon Prepares for Weeks of Ground Operations in Iran," The Washington Post, 29 March 2026: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/28/trump-iran-ground-troops-marines/

    Alexander Ward et al, "Trump Weighs Military Operation to Extract Iran's Uranium," The Wall Street Journal, 30 March 2026: https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-weighs-military-operation-to-extract-irans-uranium-37427c8b

    Edward Luce, "Donald Trump Says US Could 'Take the Oil in Iran,'" Financial Times, 30 March 2026: https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5?syn-25a6b1a6=1

    Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz, twitter / x profile: https://x.com/citrinowicz
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    15 mins
  • Ep. 180: How will the Iran conflict end?

    Ep. 180: How will the Iran conflict end?
    Mar 22 2026
    Three weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, Darren looks to international relations theory — particularly the bargaining and war termination frameworks associated with James Fearon — to explain why this conflict is so resistant to ending. He organises his thinking around two conditions for war termination: the existence of a mutually acceptable deal, and a credible mechanism for enforcing it. Neither condition is met, and the war is actively making both harder to achieve. Both sides are pursuing cost imposition, but with incompatible visions of what peace looks like. The US is destroying Iran’s military capacity; Iran is weaponising the Strait of Hormuz and attacking Gulf energy infrastructure. Darren examines why Trump’s coercive credibility has been undermined by the South Pars episode, why Iran’s energy war may be hardening rather than softening its neighbours’ resolve, and what Oman’s foreign minister’s extraordinary public intervention reveals about Gulf anger at both Iran and the United States. The episode offers two speculative theories for how the war might end — one centring on Trump’s psychology and capacity for narrative reinvention, the other on whether China could help solve the credible commitment problem by offering Iran something the US cannot. It closes with a reflection on what it means for analysts, governments, and markets when the most consequential variable in the system is a single unpredictable leader. A postscript addresses Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, issued hours before recording, threatening to destroy Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links The Economist, “There is plenty of scope for the Iran war to intensify,” 21 March 2026: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/03/19/there-is-plenty-of-scope-for-the-iran-war-to-intensify Malcolm Moore, Rachel Millard and Verity Ratcliffe, “‘Armageddon scenario’ for gas markets as Qatar hit by missiles,” Financial Times, 19 March 2026: https://www.ft.com/content/5b66d91f-f94a-4ea1-b90f-ce62ccb15d50 James Fearon, “Rationalist Explanations for War,” International Organization, 49(3), 1995: https://web.stanford.edu/group/fearon-research/cgi-bin/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Rationalist-Explanations-for-War.pdf RAND Corporation, Theories of Victory, Perspectives PEA1743-1, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA1743-1.html Brynn Tannehill, “Why the Iran War Could Last Far Longer Than Either Side Wants to Admit,” Byline Times, 20 March 2026: https://bylinetimes.com/2026/03/20/why-the-iran-war-could-last-far-longer-than-either-side-wants-to-admit/ Yaroslav Trofimov, “Iran Believes It’s Winning — and Wants a Steep Price to End the War,” Wall Street Journal, 20 March 2026: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-negotiations-demands-85555522 Adam Tooze and Cameron Abadi, Ones and Tooze podcast, “Economic Impact of Iran War,” 21 March 2026: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckRRxpoUoPc Thomas Wright, “The Disappearing Off-Ramp in Iran,” The Atlantic, 17 March 2026: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/03/iran-victory-trump/686411/ Badr Albusaidi, “America’s friends must help extricate it from an unlawful war,” The Economist, 21 March 2026: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2026/03/18/americas-friends-must-help-extricate-it-from-an-unlawful-war The Economist, “Operation Blind Fury,” 21 March 2026: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/03/19/war-in-iran-is-making-donald-trump-weaker-and-angrier Jake Sullivan and John Finer, The Long Game podcast, Week 3 episode (interview with Helima Croft), 21 March 2026: https://staytuned.substack.com/p/transcript-the-iran-war-energy-crisis David Sanger, “Trump Is Finally Eyeing an Exit From Iran. But Will He Take It?” New York Times, 21 March 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/us/politics/trump-iran-offramp.html
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    49 mins
  • Ep. 179: Iran — Two weeks in

    Ep. 179: Iran — Two weeks in
    Mar 15 2026
    Two weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, Darren uses Robert Pape's cost-benefit framework to assess where things stand. The tactical achievements are real — two-thirds of Iran's missile launchers destroyed, its navy sunk, its leadership decapitated — but the probability of converting those gains into durable strategic outcomes is low, and the costs are mounting fast. On the military side, interceptor stocks are being depleted at unsustainable rates, and missile defence assets may be being redeployed from South Korea in a move that achieves what Chinese coercion could not. Economically, Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered what may be the largest oil supply disruption in history, with cascading effects through gas, fertiliser, and food markets arriving at the worst possible moment in the agricultural calendar. Strategically, Russia is profiting, China is learning, Gulf allies are furious, and the non-proliferation incentive structure has been inverted. Darren assesses the range of plausible outcomes — from a painful but temporary shock to a nuclear-armed Iran within eighteen months — and examines the factors that will determine how the war ends, including US-Israel divergence, Trump's contradictory signals, and Iran's determination to ensure this is the last time it is attacked. He closes with an observation about weaponised interdependence: that a sanctioned middle power with cheap drones and a narrow strait has exposed the gap between America's capacity to destroy and its capacity to control. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Robert Pape, Bombing to win (1996): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/761594.Bombing_to_Win Caitlin Talmadge, “Closing Time: Assessing Possible Outcomes of U.S.-Iranian Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz,” International Security, 33(1), summer 2008: 82-11: http://www.caitlintalmadge.com/uploads/8/5/4/1/85419560/closing_time.pdf Caitlin Talmadge, "The Hormuz Minefield", Foreign Affairs, 13 March 2026: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-minefield Vali Nasr, "Iran is playing a long game", Financial Times, 13 March: https://www.ft.com/content/93b7b65d-074b-4e8b-807f-5c27c7362213 Matthew Continetti, "Iran Can't Hold the World Hostage", Wall Street Journal, 13 March: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-expression/iran-cant-hold-the-world-hostage-05f595a4 Greg Brew, "The global oil crisis is even worse than it looks" (interview), Vox, 11 March: https://www.vox.com/politics/482142/oil-gas-prices-iran-war-inflation B.A. Friedman, "Orphaned Tactics", Fire for Effect Substack, 9 March: https://bafriedman.substack.com/p/orphaned-tactics Danny Citrinowicz, thread on tactical success masking strategic failure, X/Twitter, 14 March: https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2032786358930972854 Ezra Klein, "I Asked a Former Trump Official to Justify This War" (interview with Nadia Schadlow), New York Times, 10 March: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-nadia-schadlow.html Foreign Policy Live debate: Matthew Kroenig vs Trita Parsi, Foreign Policy, 12 March: https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/12/kroenig-parsi-debate-war-in-iran/ Shelby Talcott, “Israel is running critically low on interceptors, US officials say”, Semafor, 15 March: https://www.semafor.com/article/03/14/2026/israel-is-running-critically-low-on-interceptors-us-officials-say Gideon Rachman, "Simon Gass on Iran" (interview), The Rachman Review podcast, 12 March: https://www.ft.com/content/cba7352f-aac0-4a6a-8919-c0597bc94c43 Rory Johnston and Nader Itayim, Oil Ground Up podcast, 13 March: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7uPA9g5dWIYcvGH6vSSpEh Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal, "Oil markets" and "Fertiliser" episodes, Odd Lots podcast, 13–14 March: https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots China Talk podcast, "Second Breakfast: Iran", 14 March: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/iran-war-with-shashank Jake Sullivan and John Finer, interview with Danny Citrinowicz, The Long Game podcast, 12 March: https://staytuned.substack.com/p/america-doesnt-understand-iran-and Economist Intelligence podcast, " Lone goals: will US-Israel war aims diverge?", 13 March: https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2026/03/13/lone-goals-will-us-israel-war-aims-diverge
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    48 mins
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