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Beverage Business Briefing

Beverage Business Briefing

By: Carlos DeOliveira
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Stay ahead of the trends shaping the world of wine, spirits, beer, and non-alcoholic drinks. Each episode delivers a quick, insightful look at the latest developments in the beverage industry—from distributor shake-ups and retail strategies to brand launches, consumer trends, and regulatory updates. Whether you’re a retailer, supplier, or industry enthusiast, Beverage Business Briefing keeps you informed and ready to make smarter decisions in today’s fast-changing marketplace.Copyright 2026 Carlos DeOliveira Art Economics Food & Wine Politics & Government
Episodes
  • Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | April 03, 2026

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | April 03, 2026
    Apr 3 2026

    ## SHOW NOTES

    **Top Stories**

    - **Pernod Ricard & Brown-Forman confirm merger talks** — potential $31B combined entity; Citi puts deal odds at 50/50; Jefferies projects $450M in synergies; governance and balance sheet challenges remain

    - **E. & J. Gallo closes $775M Four Roses acquisition** — highest price ever for a Kentucky bourbon distillery; returns brand to US family ownership after 83 years

    - **Diageo North America CEO Sally Grimes departs suddenly** — replaced by 30-year veteran John O'Keefe; comes as Diageo US spirits sales fall 11.6%

    - **Southern Glazer's acquires ~22M ABI beer cases in under a year** — Clare Rose, Eagle Rock, and ABI's NY distributorship; building parallel beer empire

    - **Reyes Beverage Group acquires RNDC operations across 11 markets** — names Brian Albenze as market president

    **Market Data**

    - US bev-alc volume fell 5% in 2025 (IWSR); off-premise dollar sales down 2.7% in latest 4-week period (NIQ)

    - Spirits ex-prepared cocktails: -6.1% dollars, -4.8% volume

    - Wine: -5.1% dollars, -5.9% volume

    - Beer: -1.3% dollars, -3.0% volume (improving sequentially)

    - Prepared cocktails: +5.4% dollars — sole growth category

    - Spirits-based RTDs: +35% value, +36% volume

    - RTD share of total bev-alc: 6% (2019) ? 13% (2025)

    - Only 54% of Americans report drinking alcohol (Gallup — new low)

    **American Whiskey**

    - Production down 28% YoY through August 2025; lowest since 2018

    - 16.1M aging barrels in Kentucky — all-time record

    - Exports down 19% ($250M decline); EU exports -35%, Canada -70%

    - Jim Beam, Diageo, Brown-Forman all curtailing production; MGP contract business cut by more than half

    - Green River lays off head distiller; LF Heritage ordered into foreclosure; Goodwood seeks merger

    **Flavored Bev-Alc Power Rankings**

    - Top 10 vendors control 81.2% of dollar sales

    - BuzzBallz: $794M (+50.1%); Cutwater: $585M (+100.5%); BeatBox: $413M (+31.4%); Surfside: $191M (+115%)

    - High-ABV (8%+) sub-segment: 36.9% of total, up 19.3% to $5.5B

    **Wine**

    - California 2025 crush: 2.62M tons (above expectations); 18 months of supply projected

    - 38M US beer/spirits drinkers cite taste aversion as barrier to wine

    - DtC wines above $50 = 71% of total shipment value (up from 52% in 2020)

    - Imported wine volumes down ~8% Oct-Jan vs. domestic wines down 3%

    **M&A & Deals**

    - Tilray completes BrewDog acquisition at £41M (~$54.5M)

    - Firestone Walker acquires Trumer Pils US rights from Gambrinus

    - Hood River Distillers acquires Crater Lake Spirits

    - Constellation acquires remaining HOPWTR stake

    - KDP completes JDE Peet's acquisition; planning separation into Coffee Co. and Beverage Co.

    - Sysco acquires Jetro Restaurant Depot for $29.1B

    - Breakthru Beverage enters hemp THC beverage distribution in Minnesota

    **Key Consumer & Macro Signals**

    - Jefferies Consumer Pulse: 89 (lowest since Nov 2023)

    - 31% of drinkers cite financial pressure as moderation driver

    - GLP-1 drugs: 23% of users drink less dining out; 39% drink less overall

    - Gen Z unemployment: 9.2%; cocktail prices exceeding $20 dampening on-premise occasions

    **Legal & Regulatory**

    - Oz Trading permanently enjoined from counterfeit Modelo/Corona labels

    - Tito's Vodka ordered to pay $749K Maine back taxes

    - ABI pays $2.3M Fairfield brewery emissions penalty

    - TTB recommends delaying Q1 2026 CBMA claims due to data error

    - Colorado bev-alc fee bill defeated in committee

    - Treasury Wine Estates: shares down 63%; near-$1B US asset write-down flagged
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    45 mins
  • Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | March 27, 2026

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | March 27, 2026
    Mar 27 2026
    **Week of March 24–28, 2026****Top Stories:**- **Pernod Ricard & Brown-Forman confirm active merger discussions** — potential "merger of equals" that would create joint #2 US spirits company; estimated $450M in cost synergies; Jefferies, TD Cowen, and ROTH weigh in on strategic logic, valuation, and Brown family governance hurdles- **Uncle Nearest crisis deepens** — receiver seeks gag order and $75K sanctions against founder Fawn Weaver; $200M+ in total debts; employee resignations, distributor payment delays, and stalled asset sales- **Stoli/Amber Beverage Group confirms loan default** — formal breach of loan note conditions amid sanctions, cyberattack fallout, Stoli USA insolvency, and declining global spirits demand- **Molson Coors acquires Atomic Brands (Monaco Cocktails)** — boldest RTD move yet; Monaco is #5 US RTD brand with accelerating growth (+24.8% dollar growth in latest week); 70,000 retail doors; part of Horizon 2030 strategy- **Tennessee Distilling Group acquires Waterford Distillery (Ireland)** — cross-border deal for distressed Irish whiskey assets; HSBC-appointed receiver facilitated sale**Market Data & Trends:**- NBWA Beer Purchasers' Index hits 50 — first expansion-level reading in 20 months; Imports (54), FMB/Seltzer (53), Below Premium (52) all above 50- NIQ off-premise: total alcohol -2.7% dollars, -3.0% volume (L4W ending 3/14); Prepared Cocktails only positive category at +4.5% dollars- NABCA February: spirits volume -1.4%, dollar volume -3.4%; wine volume -4.7%; RTDs and Tequila only positive growth categories- US spirits tax-paid shipments -9.4% YoY in January — 15th consecutive month of moderation- Non-alcoholic beverages +22% YoY, reaching $925M in off-premise sales; 92% of NA buyers still purchase alcohol**Consumer Shifts:**- LendingTree: only 56% of Americans currently consume alcohol; Gen Z at 53% non-drinking; 27% report drinking less YoY- GLP-1 drugs: ~1 in 8 US adults currently on medication; JPM projects 30M+ users by 2030; potential $30B–$55B annual demand elimination- On-premise vs. off-premise divergence highlighted at Constellation Gold Network Summit (HMSHost, Kroger, RaceTrac insights)- Wine club growth decelerates to 2% (down from 11% peak in 2018); lifestyle-integrated models emerging (Ashes & Diamonds, Wente)**Distribution Consolidation:**- KEG 1 acquires Pine State Trading Co. (Maine/NH) — 7.9M cases, 350+ suppliers; second deal of 2026- Southern Glazer's acquires Eagle Rock Distributing (CO) and Clare Rose (NY)- Reyes to absorb RNDC operations across 11 markets (AZ, FL, TX, VA, DC, others) — closing by end of May- AB InBev acquires Advance Beverage Company (Bakersfield, CA)- Columbia Distributing acquires Point Blank Distributing (OR) — adds ~1M cases- Teamsters Local 79 wins vote at SGWS Lakeland, FL facility**Wine Industry:**- US winery count falls 3% — first broad decline in decades; CA crush smallest since 1994- Willamette Valley Vineyards: net sales -6.5%, operating income swings to -$1.4M loss- Roco Winery (Marzotto family) acquires Francis Ford Coppola's Domaine Lumineux in Dundee Hills, OR- Silicon Valley Bank projects "bumpy bottom" in wine demand around 2027–2028**Other Notable Stories:**- Celsius Holdings: stock -18% in past month; Citi calls it a buying opportunity; SKU rationalization driving short-term scanner data weakness; Costco Kirkland launch seen as limited threat- Fever-Tree: profit -16% in FY2025; US revenue +6% at constant currency; Molson Coors partnership positioned as growth lever; non-tonic products now 45% of revenue- BofA commodity trendspotter: spot inflation +3.7% YoY, geopolitical risk not yet reflected- ADI/DISCUS launch "Ship My Spirits" DTC campaign; Iowa bills advancing- DTC beer shipping survey: 81% of craft drinkers support expanded access; 72% would spend $50+/month- Michigan AG sues Buon Vino LLC for unlicensed wine shipping — 84 confirmed violations, $25K per violation sought- Bardstown Bourbon Co. files counterclaim against former HR VP- TGI Fridays bankruptcy: court approves solicitation of creditor votes; confirmation hearing May 1- ACSA: founding CEO Margie Lehrman retires; Emily Pennington named new CEO effective May 1- NABCA: Kristin Beltzer (Michigan LCC) elected incoming Chair-Elect- U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 55.5, down from 56.6; inflation expectations stall at ...
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    26 mins
  • Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | March 20, 2026

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | March 20, 2026
    Mar 20 2026

    **Major Themes This Week:**

    - **Distribution consolidation accelerates:** Reyes Beverage Group expands RNDC acquisition to 10 states plus D.C.; SGWS acquires Clare Rose on Long Island; A-B InBev acquires Advance Beverage in Bakersfield, CA; SGWS faces federal indictment of former executives

    - **Off-premise sales still declining:** Total alcohol dollars down -2.4% (NIQ 4-week) to -3.4% (TD Cowen 2-week); spirits ex-RTDs deepest at -6.6%; wine -5.3%; beer most resilient at -0.8%

    - **RTDs are the only growth category:** Prepared cocktails +5.4% in dollars; Cutwater +116.3%, Surfside +240.3%, BuzzBallz +32.3%

    - **Non-alcoholic beer surging:** +18.1% in latest Circana week, +9.1% in NIQ 4-week data

    **Notable Company Moves:**

    - **Constellation Brands:** Modelo accelerated to +6.9%, Pacifico +33.2%; Jefferies raised price target to $162; Hispanic consumer sentiment improving

    - **Tilray:** Acquiring BrewDog's US assets (Columbus brewery/pubs, Las Vegas brewpub), completing global BrewDog brand ownership

    - **Sazerac:** Acquired Dirty Shirley RTD brand, adding to portfolio alongside BuzzBallz, Buffalo Trace, Fireball, Southern Comfort, SVEDKA

    - **Boston Beer:** New $25M share buyback plan; $50M total with prior plan; ~$215M remaining on $1.6B authorization

    - **Brown-Forman:** Named Jim Peters (ex-Whirlpool) as new CFO, effective March 31; focus on operational discipline

    - **Diageo:** New CEO Dave Lewis receives first LTIP; Jefferies models -12% North America EBIT in F27; shares at 25% discount to staples peers

    - **Celsius/Alani Nu:** Combined share gained 141 bps to 15.7%; Alani Nu alone +58.9%

    **Supply & Trade:**


    - **California grape crush:** 2.76M tons — lowest since 1994; 23% below 5-year average; 57,000 acres removed; crop value down 16% to $2.414B

    - **Italian wine exports to US:** Down -9.2% in value; H2 2025 down -23%; bottled red wine -28%

    - **US TBA inventories:** Hit lowest level since Sept 2022 but remain 37% above 2019 average; prolonged normalization expected


    **Consumer & Macro:**


    - **Health-forward demand:** 58% of consumers scrutinize ingredients; 52% pay premium for wellness; 66% choosing lower-sugar options (EY survey)

    - **NRF projects +4.4% US retail sales growth** in 2026 to $5.6 trillion; premium segments expected to outpace value

    - **Scope Ratings:** Beer industry in "long-term structural stagnation"; pricing power exhausted


    **Regulatory:**


    - **New York wine-in-grocery legislation** faces unified opposition from UFCW and Metropolitan Package Store Association


    **Legal:**


    - **Uncle Nearest:** Bankruptcy petitions dismissed; receiver alleges $200M+ in debt; potential $75K sanctions against founder Fawn Weaver; receivership expansion pending; defamation countersuit filed
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    41 mins
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