Pandemic Risk Assessment is an emerging scientific toolkit designed to assess how pandemic risk is evolving over time. Rather than predicting the next outbreak, it integrates evidence across scientific disciplines to identify the drivers and estimate the probabilities of pandemic outbreaks. And in so doing, it can help policymakers prioritize prevention and preparedness investments before crises emerge.

Pandemic Risk Assessment is still an emerging field, but there is growing momentum to institutionalize it, with discussions exploring a range of possible models, including options inspired by bodies such as the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is the UN-backed scientific body that regularly updates policymakers on the latest findings on climate change. Joining me to discuss why pandemic risk assessment is needed, what a robust scientific process might look like, and how to make it a permanent feature of our global pandemic preparedness landscape are Serina Ng and Ben Oppenheim.

Ben Oppenheim is a non-resident fellow at the Berkeley Risk and Security Lab and at the Center for Global Development. Serina Ng is a Director at the World Health Organization and Executive Head of the G20 Joint Finance Health Task Force Secretariat, which is hosted at the WHO.

Today's episode is produced in partnership with the United Nations Foundation as a part of a series called Before the Outbreak, which examines the role of disease surveillance in stopping the next pandemic

Many of our best surveillance tools today that were originally built to target specific diseases like polio and malaria have become critical infrastructure for outbreak response and early warning across a wide range of pathogens. This includes laboratory networks, diagnostic tools, and community health workers—all of which play vital roles in broader outbreak preparedness.

In today's episode, two experts who have helped create platforms to monitor and respond to specific diseases explain how those systems have been leveraged to detect and respond to outbreaks of all kinds. Hamid Jafari served as Director of Polio Eradication for the World Health Organization's Eastern Mediterranean Region, and Krystal Burungi Mwesiga is an entomologist at the Uganda Virus Research Institute, where she works as a research and outreach associate with the Target Malaria, a not-for-profit research consortium.

We kick off by discussing how these disease-specific surveillance platforms work, then broaden the conversation to how they've been adapted to respond to other outbreaks—and what can be done to make these tools even stronger.

This episode is produced in partnership with the United Nations Foundation as part of a series called "Before the Outbreak" that examines the role of disease surveillance in stopping the next pandemic.

Robust disease surveillance systems are the foundation of strong public health systems and are essential to preventing, detecting, and responding to health threats before they escalate. Commitments to and investments in quality disease surveillance systems are key to smart, cost-effective public health decision-making, which is needed more than ever.

Before the Outbreak is a three-part podcast series produced in partnership between Global Dispatches and the United Nations Foundation, in which we explore how the world sees, anticipates, and prepares for current and emerging health threats. Through stories and science, this series highlights the critical functions that protect us – before the outbreak begins.

Our debut episode features the expertise of Dr. Ciro Ugarte, Director of Health Emergencies at the Pan American Health Organization, and Dr. Pardis Sabeti, a professor at Harvard University's School of Public Health. We begin by defining our terms—that is, what do we mean by disease surveillance? We then discuss how disease surveillance works in practice and what can be done to strengthen our global defenses against the next pandemic.