You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Prior to the Middle East conflict, investor sentiment toward Emerging Markets had turned increasingly bullish, driven by momentum and demand for assets positioned for US dollar weakness; while the war in Iran and the effective closure of the Hormuz Strait disrupted that optimism, David Hauner and David Beker argue the structural EM case remains intact. Latin America-particularly Brazil and Argentina-appears well positioned in a world of higher commodity and energy price floors, despite continued energy‑shock risks. Attractive valuations, improving fundamentals, and persistent global underallocation continue to support EM, with Latin America standing out as a key supplier of energy and commodities-Brazil benefiting as an energy exporter amid an easing cycle, and Argentina offering reform‑driven, off‑index upside.

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Equities drop but S&P earnings resilient for now

Global markets are recalibrating as higher energy prices shift the macro outlook and force a reassessment of growth and inflation. Our commodity strategy team raised forecasts for oil prices and other commodities due to Middle East supply challenges, leading the Global Economics team to lower their global growth estimates. While higher oil prices offer a modest tailwind to energy production and fiscal revenues for some countries, they also mean higher costs and tighter financial conditions, with the net effect being that 2026 GDP estimates were cut in the 0.3-0.5 ppt range. Savita Subramanian highlights that U.S. corporate earnings have remained resilient, supported by strength in energy and tech, and discusses how the recent selloff, combined with positive earnings revisions, informs her view on the S&P 500 and whether earnings are likely to remain relatively unfazed. She also outlines preferred sectors, while we cover the key risks to economic and earnings forecasts from here.

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.