In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with Rajeswari Sengupta, Economist and Associate Professor at Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), about the recent volatility in the rupee and the Reserve Bank of India’s response to it. They discuss how global shocks—from the West Asia conflict to sustained capital outflows—have exposed deeper structural vulnerabilities in India’s external sector.

Sengupta explains how the rupee’s weakness is not just cyclical but rooted in fundamentals, including rising import dependence, especially on energy, and weakening foreign capital inflows. Against this backdrop, they examine the RBI’s increasingly aggressive intervention to stabilise the currency.

But are these measures addressing volatility, or attempting to influence the level of the exchange rate itself? What does this mean for the rupee’s role as a market-driven price, and for India’s ambitions of greater financial openness?

Tune in for insights into the tensions between currency management and market forces, and what it means for the future of India’s exchange rate framework.

CHAPTERS

(00:00) Pressures on the Rupee

(01:09) West Asia War Impact

(02:30) Energy Import Dependencies

(04:32) Sustained Capital Outflows

(06:14) Financing Current Account Deficit

(08:03) RBI’s Intervention Methods

(10:14) Offshore Arbitrage and Banks

(11:58) Unprecedented Regulatory Measures

(13:16) Impact on Indian Banks

(15:42) Risks of Policy Flip-Flops

(16:59) Cost of Hedging Exposure

(21:20) Value of Market Speculation

(26:38) Rupee as Shock Absorber

(31:07) Recommendations for Future Policy

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In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with Safi Rizvi, National Security Expert, Risk Analyst, Former top Intelligence Officer and Former IPS officer, about how the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States and its allies is reshaping the foundations of the global economic and geopolitical order. They discuss how the post-Cold War system—built on multilateral institutions, bilateral diplomacy and a broadly rules-based framework—is now giving way to a more fragmented, power-driven world.

Rizvi explains how the erosion of multilateralism and the breakdown of negotiation channels are altering the way conflicts unfold, making them longer, less predictable and more economically disruptive. He also examines how recent wars—from Ukraine to West Asia—are exposing gaps in military strategy, accelerating shifts in defence technologies, and strengthening the global military-industrial complex.

They explore how the centre of gravity in energy markets has shifted from the West to Asia, and why disruptions around critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz now pose far greater risks for countries like India, China, Japan and South Korea.

What does this mean for energy security, global trade flows and the ability of emerging economies to navigate prolonged geopolitical instability?

Tune in for insights into how this conflict could reshape markets, energy dynamics and the global balance of power.

CHAPTERS

(00:00) Introduction

(01:05) Rise of De-multilateralization

(04:12) AI Targeting and Failures

(06:01) Military Intelligence Gap Concerns

(07:10) Attritive vs Attritable Munitions

(08:20) Global Energy Buyer Shifts

(10:45) Ground War Damage Risks

(12:40) Breakdown of Negotiation Trust

(14:20) Oil and Gas Predictions

(16:44) Conditions for Peace Deals

(18:25) Proposed Buyer OPEC Plus

(19:58) India’s Measured Peace Call

(22:25) Strait of Hormuz Miscalculations

(23:01) Leveraging Financial Trade Power

(25:02) Trump’s Aggressive Defensive Strategy

(27:25) Future Republican Leadership Shifts

(28:30) Market Adjustments and Tariffs

(30:08) Iranian Resilience and Nationalism
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In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with Hemant Mishr, Co-Founder and Group CIO of SCUBE Capital, and former Managing Director & Head- Financial Markets, South East Asia, SCCG at Standard Chartered Bank. They talk about how rising geopolitical tensions—from the Iran conflict to great-power rivalry—are beginning to reshape the foundations of the global financial system. They discuss how the post-1970s financial architecture was built on three pillars: globalization, a rules-based order backed by the United States, and relative geopolitical consensus.

Mishr explains how that system evolved around the oil shocks of the 1970s and the emergence of the petrodollar, which helped anchor the dominance of the US dollar and the recycling of global capital through American markets. But today, shifting power balances, the expanding use of financial sanctions, and growing geopolitical fragmentation are testing that framework.

What does this mean for the future of the dollar, global capital flows, and emerging economies like India?

Tune in for insights into how geopolitics is reshaping the world’s financial architecture.

SHOW NOTES

(00:00) Introduction

(00:52) Pillars of Financial Architecture

(02:18) Rise of the Petrodollar

(03:25) Shift to Petrodollar 2.0

(04:06) Three Scenarios for Finance

(06:05) India’s Role as Swing State

(07:25) Economic Impact of Oil Prices

(09:37) Risks to Rupee and Remittances

(11:02) Managing Complex Geopolitical Ties

(12:59) Timelines for Market Recovery

(16:17) Resilience of India’s Growth

(18:31) Investing in Indian Markets

(20:41) Lessons from China’s Model

(22:49) Managing Exchange Rate Volatility

(24:45) Deepening Local Credit Markets

(26:23) China’s Strategic Currency Policy

(29:57) Attracting Global Institutional Capital

(32:21) Developing International Financial Hubs

(34:24) Technology and Data Security

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