Even if the current shaky ceasefire becomes permanent, the complexities of repairing and restarting chemical plants means global markets will have to wait 12-18 months for regional operations to return to normal.

- Restarting chemical plants is complex and requires external technical experts who will be in short supply

- Plant restarts require huge amounts of energy, which will overstretch power networks if multiple plants try to fire up

- Logistics logjams will add further delays to restart plans

- Personnel are no longer on site and will have to return

- It will take 12-18 months for Middle East production to ramp up

- Europe and Asia will be lucky to receive Middle East trade flows by the end of the year

- Europe’s chemical industry could see a renaissance if industrial customers return to local sourcing

- Europe is becoming cost-competitive again

LONDON (ICIS)--Butadiene prices have surged globally following Middle East supply disruptions linked to the US‑Iran conflict. Europe BD editor Melissa Hurley discusses the current market conditions and challenges facing the global market with editors Ai Teng Lim, Elaine Zhang and Senior BD analysts Gawaine Preston (Europe) and Ann Sun (Asia) and Preeti Sriram covering (US).

Asia

• Asian butadiene output losses could to deepen into April and beyond, as the ongoing Middle East conflict shows no sign of easing, limiting any near‑term recovery in regional BD production.
• Synthetic rubber producers considering further production cuts in April given the ongoing tight supply and higher BD prices

Europe

• Soaring naphtha costs pushed BD producer margins negative in March, resulting in a sharp triple‑digit rise in the April contract price - up 50% month-on-month
• Export prices surged around 80% month on month in March
• Tight availability amid planned BD/cracker turnarounds making it challenging to export volumes towards Asia

US market

• US BD prices also rising, but spot export supply remains tight due to outages and turnarounds

LONDON (ICIS)--Europe oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets are in significant flux as volatility spikes off the back of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and associated severe shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply constraints and rising costs are heavily impacting sentiment into late March with sellers pushing hard for price increases across the board.

Glycol ethers editor Cameron Birch speaks to oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate editor Marion Boakye and acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech about market conditions and expectations for the near future.