Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Beginning of the End of War?

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel is supporting U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait, would not strike Iranian oil and gas targets again, and that the war could end sooner than expected.

His "verge of victory" remarks lifted risk assets as markets priced in a shorter conflict — though volatility persisted, with reports of renewed Iranian missile launches emerging even as he spoke.

U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, but recovered sharply from session lows following Israel's pledge to halt strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and President Trump's confirmation that there would be no ground troop deployments. Equity futures edged higher Thursday night on the back of Netanyahu's remarks.

U.S. oil prices extended their decline after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled that Washington may soon lift sanctions on Iranian crude held aboard tankers, aiming to relieve price pressures following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

In a joint statement, the U.S., Britain, Canada, France, Germany, and Japan affirmed their readiness to help ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets remained under pressure as investors weighed a hawkish Federal Reserve against ongoing tensions in the Gulf region. Assets sold off broadly — bonds, equities, and metals — as tit-for-tat strikes on regional energy infrastructure drove prices sharply higher.

After three sessions of pullback, the Nifty resumed its downtrend, plunging 775 points (3.26%) to close at 23002 yesterday — its steepest single-session drop in percentage terms since April 7, 2025.

As anticipated in yesterday's commentary, the Nifty found support at the lower end of the 22,923–23,207 band — and is now poised to rebound toward the upper end today.