Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Trump announces 10-Day Pause on Strikes, A Reprieve for Oil and Markets

President Trump announced a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, extending the deadline to April 6 and offering markets near-term relief — though substantial uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz closure persists.

Brent crude and WTI each fell nearly 1% in early trading, a brief respite following the prior session's 5% surge driven by supply disruption fears.

The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 25% of global oil and LNG transits — has pushed Brent futures up approximately 40% and WTI up over 30% since hostilities began on February 28.

US equity markets deteriorated sharply on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% — its steepest single-session decline since the conflict's onset — while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.4%, slipping into correction territory. Losses deepened as investors grew increasingly concerned about the conflict's implications for inflation and growth.

The 10-year US yield climbed to 4.41% — its highest closing level since July 2024 — while the 2-year yield reached its highest point since June 2025, as traders reassessed the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may be forced to delay rate cuts.

Despite the equity rebound, the Indian rupee remains under pressure, hovering near record lows of approximately ₹94.1 against the dollar. The currency's weakness reflects sustained foreign institutional outflows, which totalled nearly $11 billion in March alone — underscoring persistent macroeconomic anxiety even as near-term energy price fears have partially abated.

Indian equity markets reopen today, March 27, following the Ram Navami holiday. Heading into the break, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 posted gains exceeding 1.6%, buoyed by broad-based buying and stabilising global cues — though persistent geopolitical tensions are likely to keep sentiment in check.

The recent pullback has nudged the Nifty back above its 10-day SMA (23,240) — its first close above that level since the drawdown sparked by the West Asia conflict. Key support has shifted higher to 23060, with resistance clustered in the 23378–23618 zone.

Indian markets are poised to open around 0.5% lower on weak global cues.