Join Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv for Episode 12 of Turtle Talk — no guests this month, just the three turtles going deep.

February was another outstanding month for classic trend followers, but March has thrown a few spanners in the works. The guys unpack what's really driving performance, where the next big opportunities might be hiding, and take aim at some of the most persistent myths in the trend following space.

In this episode:

📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – February 2026 Review All trend following benchmarks delivered strong February results. Classic Trend Index up 5.3% for the month, 14.6% over the last quarter, and 10.5% year to date — continuing to separate from the pack. A discussion on log-scale charting and what the February results really tell us (and don't tell us) about what comes next. 👉 Full report: https://www.aussieturtles.com

📈 What's Moved the Needle Jerry spotlights aluminium and bean oil — two markets showing that the opportunity set extends well beyond precious metals. Adam dives into the dramatic divergence between European and US natural gas, and the explosive breakout in Brent crude toward $114. A timely reminder that correlation is fragile when supply chains are under stress.

🐢 Turtle Tidbits – Deep Dives Two meaty topics from Jerry and Adam:

• Jerry on diversification: Why the classic trend follower's goal isn't to smooth volatility — it's to maximise the chance of catching outliers. The case for trading more markets, not fewer, even when they appear correlated.
• Adam on Trend Following vs. Passive Long Equity: Equity valuations are flashing red across every metric. With energy prices exploding and a potential regime shift underway, Adam makes the case for why the next several years could be very painful for passive index investors — and very rewarding for trend followers.

🔍 Myth Busters Jerry tackles two of the biggest misconceptions in the space:

• The diversification myth: For classic trend followers, diversification isn't about lowering volatility — it's about outlier hunting across as many markets as possible.
• The ATR myth: Richard Dennis used ATR to normalise position sizing on entry. The idea of continuously resizing winning positions to smooth the equity curve? That came later — and it costs you the very outliers that define classic trend following.

📘 The Fractals of Finance Rich's book is available now on Amazon in Kindle, paperback, and hardcover. Search Fractals of Finance or Rich Brennan. If you've read it, a short review goes a long way. 👉 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK

📩 Send your Shell Mail questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact

No episode in April — Rich and Adam are heading to the Malay Archipelago. Back in May, refreshed and ready.

Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.

Join Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv for Episode 11 of Turtle Talk with special guest Sanjeev Lakhanpal, co-founder of Horizon3 Investment Management.

📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – January 2026 All seven benchmarks rallied in unison. Classic Trend and BTOP50 shared the lead at +5.0%, with dispersion compressing to just 1.1%. Classic Trend surpasses 140% cumulative since January 2020 with a 15.5% CAGR.

👉 Full report: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-january-2026/

📈 What's Moved the Needle Metals dominate as Jerry walks through gold, silver, platinum, palladium and tin — including the brutal end-of-January sell-off. A passionate debate on vol-weighting vs loose pants, why cutting winners to improve Sharpe is a trap, and why one trade doesn't define a system. Adam brings cocoa's bear trend and Bitcoin's breakdown. Mulvaney's extraordinary January (+26%, reportedly 72% intra-month) sparks a discussion on convexity and why you can't replicate his CAGR by leveraging a smooth equity curve.

🎙 Spotlight – Sanjeev Lakhanpal (Horizon3 Investment Management) Sanj shares his journey from physics to AHL's trading desk running billions, working with David Beach — "the greatest trader no one's written a book about" — and the six-year quest to automate Beach's pattern recognition. He explains how Digital Signal Processing extracts diversified signals from price data and then reveals Horizon3's new FX Swap Arbitrage program: a market-neutral strategy exploiting structural swap rate differentials between brokers, averaging over 2% monthly with no losing months. He explains why the opportunity won't be arbitraged away and how it creates a 20-25% return cushion beneath the CTA.

Contact Sanj: sanj@h3im.com | www.h3im.com

📬 Shell Mail Two questions from Lee: handling opposing signals under US FIFO rules (net at the portfolio level), and managing multi-currency balances as a global investor — including Adam's advice: go live where your profits are.

📘 The Fractals of Finance Rich shares why he wrote this book — a lifetime searching for certainty, finding trend following, and discovering the geometry beneath markets. With a foreword by Jerry Parker. Available in Kindle, paperback, and hardcover.

👉 Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK

🌐 Resources Report: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-january-2026/ Horizon3: www.h3im.com | sanj@h3im.com Book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK Questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact

Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.

Join Rich Brennan and Jerry Parker for Episode 10 of Turtle Talk, joined by special guest Cole Wilcox, CIO of Longboard Asset Management.

No Adam this month, but a deep, wide-ranging conversation covering classic trend following, equity outliers, diversification myths, and why individual stocks may offer the cleanest expression of trend.

📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – December 2025 Review Classic Trend continues to separate from the pack, reaching new high-water marks while much of the CTA universe still lags prior peaks. We unpack dispersion, convexity, and why classic designs thrive when genuine trends emerge.

👉 Full report: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-december-2025/

📈 What’s Moved the Needle Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and livestock trends take centre stage as multi-sigma moves remind traders where returns are actually made. The discussion cuts through daily noise to focus on long-horizon positioning, unrealised profits, and why parabolic moves signal fragility, not opportunity.

🎙 Spotlight Conversation – Cole Wilcox (Longboard Asset Management) A deep dive into equity trend following at the individual stock level. Cole explains:

• Why most stock market returns come from a tiny minority of companies

• Why indices dilute trend signals

• How trend following stocks differs structurally from futures-based CTAs

• Why long-duration trends, not activity, drive compounding

• The case for absolute momentum over cross-sectional rotation

A rare, first-principles discussion on outliers, capitalism, and why trend following belongs inside equities.

Learn more about Cole’s work: https://longboardfunds.com/

📘 Feature Highlight – The Fractals of Finance Rich introduces his latest book, The Fractals of Finance, now available on Amazon, with a foreword by Jerry Parker.

The book explores why markets are fractal, why averages mislead, and why trend following works because of structure, not prediction.

👉 Available now on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK

🌐 Episode Resources

• Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – December 2025 https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-december-2025/

• Longboard Asset Management https://longboardfunds.com/

• The Fractals of Finance (Amazon) https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK

📩 Send questions for future episodes: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact

Closing Thought Markets are producing moves no backtest prepared us for. Outliers are no longer rare. Systems matter. Process matters. And survival still comes before prediction.

Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.