Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Geopolitical Risk Takes Centre Stage, RBI Comes to the Rupee Rescue

U.S. equity markets ended last week on a negative note, with the S&P 500 down about 2.1% and the Nasdaq Composite slipping about 3.2%, marking the Nasdaq's worst weekly performance since the start of the U.S.–Iran conflict.

The S&P 500 closed at 6,369, suffering its fifth consecutive weekly loss and entering its longest losing streak in nearly four years.

Equity weakness was driven largely by renewed tensions in the Middle East, with Iran‑related headlines and fears of a prolonged conflict weighing heavily on risk appetite.

Rate‑sensitive sectors bore the brunt of the sell‑off. Overall, the week underscored a shift toward risk‑off positioning, with traders repricing the odds of an extended geopolitical standoff and higher-for‑longer rates.

Crude Oil jumped after Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi launched missile and drone strikes on Israel over the weekend, widening the Middle East conflict. Brent crude surged, putting it on track for a record monthly gain as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, disrupting an estimated 15–16 million barrels of daily oil flow.

Over the past 48 hours, the war between Israel, the United States, and Iran in the Gulf has intensified, with fresh missile and drone attacks across the region amid stalled diplomacy. Iran has continued to fire missiles and drones at Israeli‑held territory and Gulf‑based US military facilities, while Israel and the US have carried out retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and nuclear‑related sites. The conflict has left the Strait of Hormuz under intermittent Iranian naval pressure, with ripple effects unsettling global energy markets.

US‑backed diplomatic outreach and Gulf‑led shuttle diplomacy have gained modest momentum, but no ceasefire or de‑escalation has been announced yet.

Indian benchmarks extended their decline for the fifth consecutive week, marking one of the most prolonged periods of weakness in recent times. The Indian Rupee hit a fresh record low on Friday, touching the 93.98 level against the US Dollar, further dampening investor confidence.

RBI comes to the Rupee Rescue:

The RBI imposed a uniform $100 million limit on the net open foreign exchange positions of banks, replacing the previous flexible cap of 25% of capital to stifle speculative "long-dollar" bets. Banks have been directed to unwind large currency positions by April 10, a move designed to trigger a temporary surge in dollar supply and provide immediate relief to the Rupee. RBI shifted its strategy from direct market intervention to regulatory tightening to preserve its "war chest."

Indian equity markets face a weak open, with a 1% to 1.5% drop expected amid flaring geopolitical tensions and a spike in crude oil prices. Technically, 23,465 remains a key resistance level, with 22,471 as the nearest support.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Trump announces 10-Day Pause on Strikes, A Reprieve for Oil and Markets

President Trump announced a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, extending the deadline to April 6 and offering markets near-term relief — though substantial uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz closure persists.

Brent crude and WTI each fell nearly 1% in early trading, a brief respite following the prior session's 5% surge driven by supply disruption fears.

The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 25% of global oil and LNG transits — has pushed Brent futures up approximately 40% and WTI up over 30% since hostilities began on February 28.

US equity markets deteriorated sharply on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% — its steepest single-session decline since the conflict's onset — while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.4%, slipping into correction territory. Losses deepened as investors grew increasingly concerned about the conflict's implications for inflation and growth.

The 10-year US yield climbed to 4.41% — its highest closing level since July 2024 — while the 2-year yield reached its highest point since June 2025, as traders reassessed the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may be forced to delay rate cuts.

Despite the equity rebound, the Indian rupee remains under pressure, hovering near record lows of approximately ₹94.1 against the dollar. The currency's weakness reflects sustained foreign institutional outflows, which totalled nearly $11 billion in March alone — underscoring persistent macroeconomic anxiety even as near-term energy price fears have partially abated.

Indian equity markets reopen today, March 27, following the Ram Navami holiday. Heading into the break, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 posted gains exceeding 1.6%, buoyed by broad-based buying and stabilising global cues — though persistent geopolitical tensions are likely to keep sentiment in check.

The recent pullback has nudged the Nifty back above its 10-day SMA (23,240) — its first close above that level since the drawdown sparked by the West Asia conflict. Key support has shifted higher to 23060, with resistance clustered in the 23378–23618 zone.

Indian markets are poised to open around 0.5% lower on weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets Celebrate Trump's Peace Overtures

U.S. stock indexes posted their best single-day performance since early February, after a five-day pause in planned military strikes against Iranian infrastructure. The Dow gained over 630 points, the S&P 500 rose 1.15%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.38%.

Iranian state media, however, denied that any direct negotiations had taken place.

Oil markets reversed, a relief that lifted airline and cruise line stocks, which had been under pressure from soaring fuel costs.

Asia-Pacific markets rallied sharply on Tuesday. South Korea's Kospi surged 3.5%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 advanced 2.2%, aided by data showing headline inflation fell to 1.3% in February — its lowest reading since March 2022 — giving the Bank of Japan room to hold off on rate hikes.

The diplomatic shift pulled capital out of safe-haven assets. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.34%, and gold briefly dropped toward $4,100 an ounce before stabilising near $4400 as investors rotated back into equities.

Indian equity markets suffered a significant crash yesterday as geopolitical friction between the U.S. and Iran intensified. The Sensex plunged over 1,800 points, while the Nifty dropped approximately 2.6% to settle near the 22512 level, driven by widespread risk aversion across nearly all sectors.

The Indian rupee fell to a record low of 93.94 against the U.S. dollar. This depreciation is largely attributed to escalating import energy costs for India and sustained capital outflows from foreign portfolio investors who have withdrawn over ₹1 trillion so far this year.

Fitch Ratings has increased India's economic growth projection for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to 7.5%, citing robust domestic demand and infrastructure investment.

Despite the previous session's heavy losses, early indicators suggest a positive opening for Indian markets. The GIFT Nifty is indicating a 1.5% higher opening, reflecting a potential recovery following reports of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Equity markets have corrected roughly 15% from their recent highs, driven by geopolitical uncertainties. While there are early signs of a potential truce, the outcome of these peace talks cannot be predicted with certainty. If one waits for a complete cessation of hostilities before acting, current price levels may no longer be available. It is therefore prudent to begin deploying capital into markets where stocks have corrected sufficiently, and valuations offer an adequate margin of safety. A reasonable strategy would be to deploy at least 25% of the capital you have been holding in reserve for the right opportunity. That opportunity is now — the time has come to begin taking measured risks.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Beginning of the End of War?

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel is supporting U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait, would not strike Iranian oil and gas targets again, and that the war could end sooner than expected.

His "verge of victory" remarks lifted risk assets as markets priced in a shorter conflict — though volatility persisted, with reports of renewed Iranian missile launches emerging even as he spoke.

U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, but recovered sharply from session lows following Israel's pledge to halt strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and President Trump's confirmation that there would be no ground troop deployments. Equity futures edged higher Thursday night on the back of Netanyahu's remarks.

U.S. oil prices extended their decline after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled that Washington may soon lift sanctions on Iranian crude held aboard tankers, aiming to relieve price pressures following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

In a joint statement, the U.S., Britain, Canada, France, Germany, and Japan affirmed their readiness to help ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets remained under pressure as investors weighed a hawkish Federal Reserve against ongoing tensions in the Gulf region. Assets sold off broadly — bonds, equities, and metals — as tit-for-tat strikes on regional energy infrastructure drove prices sharply higher.

After three sessions of pullback, the Nifty resumed its downtrend, plunging 775 points (3.26%) to close at 23002 yesterday — its steepest single-session drop in percentage terms since April 7, 2025.

As anticipated in yesterday's commentary, the Nifty found support at the lower end of the 22,923–23,207 band — and is now poised to rebound toward the upper end today.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Stocks surge on crude oil pullback

Stocks rebounded sharply on Monday after several consecutive sessions of notable losses, with all major averages closing higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the advance.

The indexes finished off their intraday highs but remained strongly positive. The Nasdaq surged 268 points, or 1.2%, to 22,374; the S&P 500 jumped 67 points, or 1%, to 6,699; and the Dow advanced 387 points, or 0.8%, to 46946.

It was the market's strongest session since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran. Easing oil prices reduced immediate concerns over energy-driven inflation and its drag on economic growth.

The technology and travel sectors led broad gains. Norwegian Cruise Line rose 5%, and United Airlines climbed 4%, both benefiting from lower fuel costs.

Semiconductor stocks were among the session's standout performers in the technology sector. NVIDIA and Micron posted notable gains as investors reassessed geopolitical risks to global supply chains and demand for digital infrastructure.

The surge in crude prices this month is likely to shift the inflation outlook and lead most central banks to hold rates steady at their policy meetings this ​week.

The Federal Reserve opened its March 17–18 policy meeting today, with markets broadly expecting rates to hold at 3.50–3.75%. Investor focus is on the updated dot plot, as energy-driven inflation has reduced 2026 rate-cut expectations from three to one.

Nifty snapped a three-day losing streak in a session defined by extreme volatility.

Having corrected nearly 13% from its all-time high, Nifty found support in the gap band of 22,923–23,207, setting the stage for a potential pullback rally.

This rebound was driven by bargain hunting in heavyweights across the banking, auto, and FMCG sectors, despite ongoing volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

On the upside, 23,700 emerges as a key resistance to monitor. A decisive break below 22,923 would signal a resumption of the downtrend.

Indian equity markets are set to open on a firm note, supported by favourable global cues.

Foreign investors are sitting on sizable short positions, and any unwinding of those bets could trigger a short-term rally.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Some Semblance of Sanity.

Amid the global fuel crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said the strait “remains open" to most vessels and is only closed to ships belonging to the United States, Israel.

This is likely to restore a measure of stability to international energy markets and ease pressure on global financial markets.

The Indian stock market endured one of its most punishing weeks in recent memory.

The broad-based sell off was not confined to equities alone; the Indian Rupee simultaneously collapsed to a fresh record low, and foreign institutional money exited at a pace not seen since early 2025.

US stock markets declined during the last week amid escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation pressures.

In just the first half of the month, FPIs offloaded more than ₹52,700 crore worth of Indian equities — a staggering figure that underscores how quickly global sentiment can reverse capital flows into emerging markets.

The near-term outlook for Indian markets hinges on two critical variables: the trajectory of the Middle East conflict and the direction of global crude oil prices.

Indian markets are likely to open a modestly higher on easing energy prices concerns.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall Street ends sharply lower as Iran war intensifies

All three major U.S. indexes closed at their lowest points of 2026. The Dow Jones fell more than 700 points to settle below 47,000 for the first time this year, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sold off sharply after Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, deepening fears of a protracted conflict.

Iranian strikes on two oil tankers sent crude surging toward $100 per barrel, compounding inflation fears and driving investors out of equities.

WTI Crude surged past $95 — a nearly 10% single-day gain — while Brent breached $100, its highest close since August 2022. The IEA reported that 7.5% of global oil supply has been disrupted, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at below 10% of pre-war levels as Iran vows not to let "a litre of oil" pass through.

The Federal Reserve convenes on March 17. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, but its updated economic projections will be scrutinised for revised inflation estimates — the crude spike from the now 13-day-old conflict has yet to filter through the data.

Asian stocks slumped on Friday, headed for a second straight weekly decline as fading hopes of a swift resolution kept oil prices elevated.

The U.S. dollar, the safe-haven of choice, was set for a second consecutive weekly gain and is up 2% since the conflict began in late February. The Dollar Index surged toward 100, pushing EUR/USD down to around 1.1530 — well off its year-to-date high of 1.2080 — while AUD/USD fell sharply below 0.7100, reversing from recent multi-year highs.

Money market futures now price in just one-quarter-point cut by December, down from two before the conflict, as rate-cut expectations have roughly halved — from 66 basis points to around 30 — in two weeks.

The Trump administration has directed U.S. oil companies and shippers to prepare for a possible waiver of the century-old Jones Act, which governs domestic maritime commerce, in an effort to contain rising fuel costs.

After hitting a record low of 92.36, the rupee clawed back to end 15 paise weaker at 92.19, buoyed by RBI intervention.

Equity markets extended their losing streak for a second consecutive session yesterday, with the Nifty 50 falling 227 points or 0.95% to settle at 23,639.

Nifty’s close at the lowest level in the recent downturn underscores the prevailing bearish momentum.

The Nifty trend remains weak, with immediate support at 23,500 and 23,210. On the upside, the 24000 – 24100 zone remains a formidable ceiling for any recovery attempts.

Indian equity markets are set for a sharply lower open as surging crude oil prices weigh on sentiment.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Geopolitical Uncertainties Keeps Markets on Edge.

Crude oil fell sharply after reports that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is preparing its largest-ever emergency release to address the ongoing supply shortage. The Paris-based body, comprising 32 member states and 13 associate countries, represents up to 75% of global energy demand. Brent Crude oil is currently trading near $90 from its Monday spike near $120 per barrel.

U.S. equities lost momentum on Tuesday as the S&P 500 surrendered early gains to close negative, with the Dow turning lower as well, while the Nasdaq eked out a marginal gain.

Markets were unsettled by fading hopes for an early end to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and stagflation concerns — compounded after President Trump threatened retaliation over reports of Iran mining the Strait of Hormuz and demanded Iran's unconditional surrender.

Fresh Iranian strikes and mixed White House messaging continued to cloud the outlook. A tanker explosion near Abu Dhabi further reignited Middle East uncertainty, erasing earlier gains.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose 1.8%, snapping a three-session losing streak, as retreating oil prices eased inflation and jet fuel concerns.

Airline stocks led the rebound — Lufthansa and Air France surging approximately 7% and 5% respectively — while Volkswagen rose over 3% despite a 53% year-on-year drop in operating profit.

Asian markets are higher today as easing oil prices lifted sentiment. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 2% while South Korea's Kospi advanced 3%, recovering a portion of the steep losses sustained earlier in the week, as oil prices pulled back on hopes that emergency crude reserves would be tapped to offset supply disruptions.

President Trump announced that Reliance Industries will back oil refinery at the Port of Brownsville, Texas — the first new U.S. refinery in 50 years, framing it as the largest deal in U.S. history.

After two days of sharp declines, the Nifty staged a strong rebound, closing higher by 233 points or 0.97% at 24,261 yesterday. Nifty stagged a pullback amid strong global cues, reclaiming over 500 points from recent low of 23697. On the higher side, immediate resistance is placed in the 24300-24415 band while 24000 is likely to act as immediate support.

Indian markets are poised to open moderately lower in line with subdued US market cues.